“We have gone from recession into something that looks more like collapse,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist at High Frequency Economics, referring to the accelerating job losses in recent months. New York Times, December 5, 2008.
In our time it is broadly true that political writing is bad writing. Where it is not true, it will generally be found that the writer is some kind of rebel, expressing his private opinions and not a "party line." -- George Orwell, "Politics and the English Language"
December 05, 2008
Mr. Bush's Neighborhood
At the same time we hear about the Bushes new start in life, the Department of Labor announces that 533,000 more Americans became unemployed in November. Rest assured that this is a tentative number; the numbers for September and October were revised way, way up at the same time this dismal stat was divulged. The Department admits at this point that 1.9 million have lost their jobs in 2008, but of course the number is higher than that. By the end of December, we can have every confidence that Bush's Economy will have delivered over 2.5 million jobs lost. And since the economy needs to produce about 150,000 new jobs per month to keep pace with population growth, you can see that we're about 4.3 million jobs away from where we need to be. The "jobs" we're talking about, of course, are the crap jobs of the service economy, but even those are tanking mightily.
There's that word again: collapse. Shades of Dmitry Orlov and his cheery prognostications about the Soviet-style implosion currently underway here in the Homeland. Realistically speaking (and what other way is there to speak at this point), there is nothing that can really be done to keep things from getting considerably worse for quite a long time. Even as I, the humble Pond Dweller, mused months ago, the subtraction of the re-fi and LOC (line of credit) money as "income" available to the stuff-buying citizenry (an insight provided in the first instance by the brilliant Kevin Phillips) portended just this rolling-up of the American works. Nothing else really could happen. If 70% of your economic activity depends on people buying stuff, and you take away half their money, the first thing that will happen is that consumer spending will come to a shuddering halt. The second thing that will happen is that all of those crap-job employees will start getting the axe as people stop coming into the stores to buy stuff. What we have here, in other words (W's favorite throat-clearer), is a classic vicious circle. As people get laid off, they lose even the real income part of their "income," subtracting them from the Stuff-Buying Horde. So what starts out as, say, a 35% contraction in the economy brought about immediately by the cessation of re-fi and LOC "income," eventually becomes much worse. Great Depression style contraction, in other words.
The Maroon of Preston Hollow was advised this was coming in 2007, so he and his fellow croupiers devised a scheme of sending tax money back to the taxpayers so they could spend some more. The sole purpose of this plan was to buy time. Isn't that obvious now? How could it possibly work in the long run? Six hundred bucks? Bush simply wanted to get to the gated confines of North Dallas without this very "collapse" we're now experiencing.
So that is the one, dismal consolation (along with Laura's liberation) that we get out of this fiasco: Bush didn't make it out unscathed. It all happened on his watch. The Democratic "Leadership," in their neverending idiocy, are demanding that Obama "take the lead" now. Huh? They want him to own this thing without any real power to do anything about it? Just how fricking dumb are Barney Frank and Harry Reid and Christopher Dodd?
Nah, this is Bush's Baby. That stimulus plan should have been directed toward the conversion of the American economy toward a sustainable future. That was $160 billion down a rat hole, a rat hole already jammed with wasted bucks from the Iraq War and the rest of Bush's nightmare initiatives. In a vain attempt to stave off the collapse, Bush simply inflicted more damage on a writhing body politic. And then headed off to settle in with Mark Cuban and T. Boone Pickens in the opulent acreage of Preston Hollow.
This current economic crisis is a problem stemming from our monetary system and Keynesian policies. It will not matter who is in office, democrat or republican, the problems are only going to get worse the more government tries to "stimulate" the economy. The newly elected administration will be a continuation of the last. The Bush Neo-cons are still running the Pentagon, Goldman Sachs is still running the Treasury and the Clintons are running everything else. So much for hope and change.
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