Which brings me, as so often, to the question of America's move to the Right. Joe Conason is out with a book called "It Can Happen Here," a play on the title of Sinclair Lewis's (unreadable) old novel "It Can't Happen Here," (meaning also that It Can Happen Here), which is about the slide toward Fascism under Bush. I think we're at the point, actually, where we can say with some confidence that American liberal democracy will outlast Bush, and the "photo finish" I talked about the other day (liberal democracy versus January 2009) comes out of my own despair over the unnecessary destruction of American institutions that Bush introduced as part of a disorganized and hapless approach to seizing power for the "Unitary Executive."
Conason organizes familiar material using a Sinclair Lewis outline, trotting out the Lewis line about "Fascism coming to America wrapped in a flag and bearing a cross." I think books like his are part of a vital and healthy dissent, and essential to preserving the ideas of the Founding Fathers so that when Bush at long last leaves town, we can remember what we used to be about. It's interesting, however, to contrast what a finished totalitarian state, as depicted in "Das Leben," looks like compared to Bush's fumbling attempt to undermine American liberty. In the GDR (East Germany) an astonishing 200,000 citizens were offical informants for the Stasi, out of a population of about 15 million. That's penetration; that's serious intrusion. People were routinely arrested and imprisoned for saying things that sounded anti-state. The East German apparatus grew, naturally, out of Nazi practices as supplemented and made more "humane" by Soviet security techniques. These people were deadly serious about repression.
Bush is sometimes compared to Fascist leaders such as Hitler and Mussolini, and this is of course the most immediate historical parallel that comes to mind. The situations are distinguishable, however. Hitler came to power out of an intense, personal and monomaniacal desire to rule supreme. He had unquestionable gifts of organization and motivation, and he was animated by a malignant ideology of hate and violence. He had been imprisoned; he had been debased and made a political pariah after the Beer Hall Putsch; he had fought and been wounded in World War I; he had come out of a difficult Austrian background of failure and marginalization, and was attempting to seize power on the big stage of German resurgence.
Bush, on the other hand (and it's our saving grace), is not really like that at all. Instead of a fire-breathing, highly ambitious ideologue armed with ruthless motivation, he's a homegrown product of America's decadent period. He came out of privilege and limitless money. He had no ambition for 40 years except to get drunk and deranged on booze and coke. By the time Hitler was 43, he was Chancellor of Germany and head of the Nazi Party, and he achieved this lofty pinnacle beginning from rural poverty and without political connections. Bush's father had been, among other things, President of the United States. Bush is not talented, except as a content-free vehicle in the service of corporate interests. He has no idea what he's doing. He's not charismatic and he doesn't motivate anybody. Unlike Hitler's Germany, America under Bush continues to lose ground economically and in its relative standing in the world. If he's a Fascist, he's the laziest and most disorganized Fascist in the history of the movement. But as I say, we are fortunate that it is so.
I recall after 9/11 that British citizens, in particular, sometimes sounded skeptical about America's over-the-top reaction to this single event of invasion. They were, of course, prudent and circumspect in their grumbling, but the idea was simple: America needed to get over itself. Britain had been bombed nonstop by the Luftwaffe from 1940 until Hitler finally turned his attention to the East. Night after night, all the major British cities took a pounding, thousands and thousands of civilians died. Day and night, the whole country was engulfed in flames for nearly a year. And when the Russian invasion failed, Hitler experimented with his V-2 rockets on those same British Isles with devastating lethality.
A group of Saudi and Egyptian nut cases flew commerical airliners into office buildings in New York and into the Pentagon. We had clear warnings that it was coming, but the federal government was too lazy and incompetent to react. Bush, seeing a political opportunity for reelection, seized on the attacks and immediately divided American history into "before" and "after" 9/11. "Everything changed." The American electorate, ignoring the inconvenient observation that this inarticulate faker was the one who failed to react to the warnings in the first place, bought into the story line. This is typical of American hysteria. In a similar way, the changes wrought by the "Mayberry Machiavellis" are hyped and exaggerated. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Gonzales - they love pushing people around for political effect, such as Guantanamo detainees and Abu Ghraib prisoners, but with occasional notable exceptions early in their reign, such as Jose Padilla, they lay off American citizens. East Germany, as a police state, was the real deal, run with characteristic German efficiency. Its purpose was to perpetuate power. Bush, Cheney and the gang piss all over America's noble traditions without anything, really, to show for it. All the violations of due process, the intrusion of NSA spying, the squalor of the signing statements, invading Iraq, the elimination of habeas corpus for the helpless, the torture -- all of it, it's for nothing. Bush & Cheney's sole agenda is to redistribute tax dollars of ordinary Americans to big business with military connections, and they do this through exaggerating nonexistent threats from irrelevant countries.
In some ways, our overreaction to this, the comparison to great Fascist regimes of recent history, parallels the hysterical overreaction to 9/11. We take ourselves, our precious selves, oh so seriously. America does face serious external threats, such as the danger of a terrorist nuke, but about those threats we do almost nothing. It's boring, unglamorous work. Who cares about port security, or X-ray machines for cargo holds, or enforcement of Nunn-Lugar? How can that thrive on the front page? When Bush leaves office, the blogosphere will contract by 50% and we'll be left with all those niggling, real problems that were neglected during our orgy of Fascism Envy. A spoiled, indolent and seriously overweight populace will have to look then for the Next Big Thing to distract them.
February 27, 2007
Das Leben des Anderes
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February 26, 2007
Apocalypse How?
"These people are going to detonate a nuclear device inside the United States ... and we're going to have no one to blame but ourselves." -- Michael Scheuer, former head of the C.I.A.'s bin Laden unit, to MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, February 19, 2007.
That isn't really news; it's sensational and au courant, but not really news. The Nunn-Lugar Act was passed years ago to deal with the very real threat of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of terrorists, and many experts, such as Graham Allison at the Kennedy School at Harvard, have offered in Senate testimony the probability estimates of an actual detonation. In late 2004, the guess was that the chance of a nuclear explosion somewhere in the world was 70% over the coming decade.
It's difficult to be more precise, of course, or even to know what to do with a probability estimate such as that. We could usefully contrast it with survival statistics in cancer research, for example. If we say that the five-year survival rate for a given type of cancer is 70%, then we can test the estimate by seeing how many survivors are around five years later. With sufficient numbers in the sample and standard scientific controls, the guesstimate can be affirmed or refuted. With a single, discrete event like a terrorist nuke, it's difficult to quantify, refute or affirm in the same way. Logically, any probability greater than zero during a given 10-year period would be affirmed by the actual event. Only if the prognosticator said the chances were, on one hand, zero; or at the other extreme, 100%, could we definitively say whether the guess was right or wrong.
So the purpose of such a probability estimate is to give us a general feeling. Should we be scared shitless, or is it just a Hollywood scenario pitch? If scientists with lots of data at their disposal start throwing around numbers like 70%, what do you think? In terms of my own street cred, I was, a long time ago, lead counsel for the intervenor in the Diablo Canyon licensing proceedings, through which Pacific Gas & Electric sought from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission a green light to operate twin megawatt reactors built on an active earthquake fault in Avila Beach, California. Part of the proceedings required me to execute an Affidavit of Nondisclosure forbidding me to divulge any information acquired through my review of classified information in the clean rooms maintained on site at PG&E. That's been easy, and the silly nature of hyped-up classification was one of the two lessons I learned from the litigation. The other was that the NRC provides no real oversight of the nuclear industry because the appointees to the Commission are all industry hacks calling in political favors. As it was then, so it is now; the difference is that the blogosphere now extensively covers Bush's continuation of these corrupt practices, so that we have, for example, coal industry lobbyists in charge of America's "fight" against global warming.
Those are valuable lessons to learn at the callow age of 32. The federal government is (a) thoroughly, utterly corrupt, and hides many of its mistakes through (b) abuse of the classification process. For purposes of thematic continuity: these sad factoids relate to the existential danger posed by terrorist nukes. How bad is the danger? The information is all classified. And who's in charge of protecting us? Hacks, such as George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, who don't know their ass from a hot rock.
Those who are privy to the information necessary to blow us to kingdom come include Islamic extremists, even if you, loyal American citizen, are not among the favored, in-the-know cohort. The basic information relevant to building a nuke is available now on the Internet or in public libraries, although the generalized diagrams or details are insufficient for a workable device. A terrorist would need either (1) an actual, assembled bomb, or (2) the materials to build one with, assisted by a bomb-making physicist.
If I were devising a Hollywood scenario, I would go for Door #2. One thing I learned (but not from classified sources) back in those glory days of within-the-system radicalism is that a standard commerical light-water reactor (such as those at Diablo Canyon, San Onofre, or dotting the landscape all over France) produces about 500 pounds of plutonium per year. About 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of plutonium is all you need for a good, solid, serviceable 10-kiloton bomb (in the Trinity shot ball park). In all the controversy over Iran's "nuclear program," we keep reading about Condi Rice's insistence that Iran "stop its uranium enrichment" as a condition of bilateral talks. Sometimes I actually wonder to myself: are Condi, Bush & Cheney so stupid they actually don't know? Uranium enrichment is the long way home. The United States undertook uranium enrichment as part of the Manhattan Project for one very simple reason: there were no nuclear reactors around to produce plutonium. But they undertook this extraordinarily complicated process because they had to. You can't find plutonium in a mine (except in infinitesimal quantities as the result of "natural reactor piles" sometimes found in uranium deposits). You make it in a reactor. A light water reactor uses U-238 (the plentiful kind) enriched to 3% (or more) U-235 (the highly radioactive isotope), all of it packed into long, cylindrical fuel rods. In the course of producing heat, through the neutron flux in the reactor core, the U-238 is altered (through a couple of chemical intervening steps) to Pu-239 - Plutonium. This silvery metal from Pluto's dark realm must be extracted from the spent fuel rods in a reprocessing plant by chemical means. The United States doesn't do this anymore, but France, England and (ahem) Russia do.
There's your weak link: Russia and all the former Soviet republics, particularly those with significant Muslim populations. This is where we're paying a terrible price for George Bush's anti-social personality disorder. His inability to get along with people has transmogrified into a global, existential crisis. Hate to say it, but it's true, folks. Bush's weird personal problems have succeeded in alienating Russia, which has strong connections to Iran, and the "crusade" bullshit he uses to galvanize America into unnecessary wars has polarized Muslim sentiment against us. His abrogation of the ABM treaty without bringing Russia along on a joint venture to develop a "missile shield" against rogue nation nukes; his enlisting of former Soviet Republics into NATO, and stationing new missile sites on Russia's border; and his adamant refusal to "talk" to Iran unless they cease doing something they don't need to do in order to become a nuclear threat - all this stupidity has added immeasurably to the danger.
We need the assistance of every advanced civilized nation on Earth to help us counter the threat of a terrorist nuke. We can't afford to be at odds with a country (Russia) which poses no threat to America's safety, yet which possesses not only finished nuclear weapons but tons of raw plutonium. We have to talk to everybody, all the time. There is no upside to this silly posturing, this Axis of Evil crap. It is the ultimate zero-sum game: one mushroom cloud here in the "homeland," and our days as a viable polity are over. We need to pull for that 30% chance it won't happen, and we need January 2009 to happen as soon as it can.
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February 24, 2007
Hypoxic Dick Heads to his next Asian Port-of-Call
1. Al-Qaeda isn't the big problem in Iraq. Liberated native Iraqis are.
2. If al-Qaeda's fundamental underlying strategy is to kill enough Americans and cause enough havoc, then keeping enough Americans in Iraq for al-Qaeda to kill also validates al-Qaeda's strategy. Leaving Iraq will make it more difficult for al-Qaeda to kill Americans and create havoc because the Americans won't be in the Arabic regions of Asia anymore.
3. What's breaking America's will is fighting a stupid goddam unnecessary war that Dick Cheney dreamed up.
Dick heads off criticism like this by his appeals to history. Historians will see that the attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, by Saudis and Egyptians was definitively refuted by invading another country run by some other Arabs, which drew in other Arabic jihadis like Woodstock-on-the-Tigris. Among the groupies were al-Qaeda Arabs, who must have thought that they'd died and gone to Paradise before blowing themselves up, dying and going to Paradise, but then they probably think they're just the lucky recipients of the worst foreign policy judgment in American history. Nevertheless, Dick faces the judgment of his legacy unafraid.
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February 22, 2007
The Years After Bush
Still, a lot of people certainly show interest in achieving the Ultimate American Dream. For the next President who ascends to the soiled and battered throne of George W. Bush, I say, good luck, sir or madam. I have a feeling the passage from 2009 to about 2020 is going to be a parlous time indeed. Bush's lab-concocted roosters (two-headed, purple and black, oozing pus, 4 feet high, fizzing with infection) currently fluttering into America's barnyard will roost there throughout his successor's tenure, whether one term or two, and I think it will be one. For a different bird and slightly different metaphor, think of Poe's Raven, perched outside the Oval Office Door. Nevermore, the easygoing dominance of America in the world. Nevermore the free ride.
Finances. The successor's term will be about finances. How dull and dreary for, say, Obama, to work upon a midnight, weary, trying to find some way out of the morass. I commend Chalmers Johnson's The Sorrows of Empire, published a few years ago, for a fuller account. (A personal note: Chalmers was a prof of mine at Berkeley, decades ago, when he was conservative and optimistic instead of one of Bush's most lacerating critics.) America is broke. Considering all of Bush's moronic ineptitude, nothing is going to be as immediate and terrifying as the money problems he will leave behind. It's sad that America never figured it out. We elected a spoiled scion who had never succeeded in any financial enterprise, who in fact wrecked the companies he directly controlled, and on whom a Harvard Business education was a joke, an excuse to get drunk and fuck around. A man with no judgment, no business acumen, no sense of budgetary priorities, who was always bailed out by paternalistic figures when he bottomed out - this is the clown we made President. Why didn't people see that his life-long habits would operate in precisely the same way once he became Chief Executive, that the approach would carry over and cause a financial meltdown on the biggest stage the world has ever seen?
The next President will inherit a country more than $9 trillion in debt, probably $10 trillion by the time Bush leaves, half of it "external;" that is, owed to real people or countries. Of the external debt of $5 trillion (by the time Shrub is done), $2.5 trillion will be owed to foreign countries, most of it on short-term obligations. $2.5 trillion is nearly as large as the current operating budget of the United States government. Since only about 70% of the current budget is funded by actual revenues (the rest is borrowed), it's obvious the United States doesn't have that kind of cash lying around. Virtually all of the sales of Treasury securities to external buyers, since Bush took office, have been to foreign central banks. It amounts to an immense Ponzi scheme; America borrows money to float its economy (and to finance Bush's wars), and then borrows the money necessary to service the debt on all the money it's borrowed in the past. A rather laughably transparent aspect of this practice has been the Fed's steady ratcheting of interest rates to "control inflation." Yes, we must keep this red hot American economy under control. Everyone is doing so well. A much more reassuring excuse than admitting that China, Japan and Saudi Arabia are losing interest in the paltry return on their reinvested dollars, especially with the dollar dropping through the floor, and are already diversifying in Euros and Asian currencies. The next President may have to deal with those blood-curdling words we've been dreading: Pay up.
And, around 2017 or so, the "surplus" in FICA taxes will plunge toward the X axis, and the Social Security Administration will lack the money necessary to pay the burgeoning numbers of Baby Boomers who are retiring, and will have to resort to the "trust fund" to make up the difference. There is, of course, no trust fund. All of the surpluses since about 1982 or so have been used by the federal government as "general revenue," and the markers for the pilfered cash, the paper instruments placed in that file cabinet in West Virginia (which Bush derided), will do no good. It is money the United States owes itself, and America isn't good for it. As bad as that situation is, it is nothing compared to Medicare. The exploding costs of medical care will combine with exploding numbers of Medicare recipients, and the system will simply crash. While Social Security is dire, the Medicare crisis is terminal, so that by the year 2019, 24% of all federal tax revenues will be spent propping up Medicare and Social Security, over and above the dedicated taxes (such as FICA) which already support the system. Indeed, the projected unfunded liabilities of the Social Security and Medicare systems greatly exceed the total net worth of the United States of America. And all of this, of course, is in addition to the national debt, and the escalating cost of servicing that huge yearly nut.
And how to deal with global warming? And a massive, dislocating shortage of oil to run the transportation system in the United States, which in most parts of the country amounts to the wherewithal to run the economy?
Bush decided to use his time in office to kick back, fuck around, and fight unnecessary wars. He thought that was his best chance for reelection, which was his only goal. The American people, in their mindless complacency, gave it to him. He didn't know the first thing about how to run a business, and he has left a financial catastrophe for his successor to clean up. When 2015 rolls around (or much sooner), Americans are not going to be talking about which humanitarian mission is a deserving recipient of their tax dollars, which nation we ought to "build" next, which planet to explore. Things are going to be far more basic than that. America is going to feel like a couple, no longer quite young, who went off on an eight-year drunk, a binge full of parties and high-def TVs and SUVs too big for the driveway, who came home to find the car had been repossessed, the power shut off, and the house foreclosed. And, naturally, since they're Americans, they'll look around for someone to blame, which might be a reason for any politician identified with the first decade of the 21st Century to go permanently to an undisclosed location.
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Back in the U.S., back in the U.S., back in the U.S.S.A.
Perhaps this terrorist was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Several hundred similar "terrorists" have been discharged from Guantanamo for this very reason, after years of unnecessary imprisonment. Maybe the terrorist has a family who depends on him, children whom he has not seen in years, perhaps he was never any kind of threat to the United States at all. All of these things could be tested by habeas corpus, that salutary Latin phrase meaning "you have the body," an ancient writ under the common law which allows one detained by the government to challenge, immediately, the basis of his incarceration. But you, the terrorist, have no such rights. You're a foreigner, Rumsfeld or Bush has said you're an "enemy combatant," and thus you'll have to make your case to a Military Status Review board down there in Cuba, and if they don't like your argument, or you -- well, settle back for a few more years, or forever, in your cage. No court is ever going to listen to you.
The good and decent Senator Patrick Leahy, Democrat from Vermont, is working to repair this abomination, one of many such gaping holes blasted in the Constitution by the Bush Administration, often with the unctuous, hypocritical help of that sniveling rat Lindsey Graham, Republican from South Carolina. I think of Leahy as sort of Bush's night soil engineer, the guy who's making his nocturnal rounds emptying all the pots of shit filled up during the dark period when Bush had a compliant Republican Congress to help with his dirty work. If he can get past the 60 vote requirement, and over Bush's probable veto, maybe the foreigners will have a chance to demonstrate their innocence in court someday. It's worth at least starting the process; more likely, many innocent detainees in Guantanamo will have to wait until at least late 2009 before a real chance at freedom appears. By then, probably several hundred men will have spent 8 years in a kind of legal purgatory, casual victims of Bush's destructive approach to due process. For what, after all, is so terrible about allowing anyone, even an alleged terrorist, to make an argument that he's done nothing wrong? Why do we close the doors to the court house to a man who simply wants to say, "I'm innocent"?
As I've said before, Bush's weird small-mindedness pervades his thinking about legal process as it does about every other intellectual discipline, from science to economics. It is proof by declaration: I say this, so it's true. And as a complacent Congress and electorate look on, the grand structure of Constitutional rights falls like a sand castle overwhelmed by a dark tide.
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February 19, 2007
Supporting the troops
What happens? The Army runs out of ammunition, fuel, food, e-mail service? No, those things don't happen. The Pentagon instead uses the humongous budget already under its control to begin an orderly and safe withdrawal of the troops from Iraq. What could be more obvious? If they need more money for that, Bush can ask for it. But as the Commander-in-Chief, it becomes his responsibility to extract the troops safely.
Yet La Diva and Mr. Mumbles seem as determined as The Decider himself that the troops will be supported by always granting Bush whatever obscene funding request he makes, while retaining the right to pass nonbinding resolutions expressing their distate for what they just did.
It is my experience in life that whenever something makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, it's the result of looking at it the wrong way. The Dimocrats do not really think that approving funding requests amounts to supporting the troops. Actually, the troops in Iraq are dropping like flies these days (another 9 since Saturday), and it's because of all that money Congress keeps giving Bush to make sure they can't come home. Congress is, in reality, killing the troops, as surely as the Sunni insurgents and the rest of the jihadis. Congress is keeping the American military in harm's way when it could easily save them.
So what is really going on? There would appear to be one possible interpretation which fits the facts. The Dimocrats want to fund the war so that the outcome remains Bush's responsibility. Once again, the Imaginary Focus Group which controls the decisions made by Congressional "leaders" dictates that any further unraveling of Iraq (if such a devolution would even be discernible) will be solely Bush's fault; thus, if he asks for money, they will give it to him. Looked at in another way, these supposedly mature adults, Dimocrats and Republicans alike, are more concerned with a generalized, fallacious impression of a hypothesized public audience than they are with the actual deaths and traumatic amputations suffered by real people in the course of riding around in vehicles in Iraq, waiting to get blown up. Through such conduct, they confirm the controlling hypothesis of C. Wright Mills in The Power Elite. Those in power will, whenever possible, make those decisions which tend to perpetuate their power, at the expense of any other consideration. In the political calculus of La Diva and Mr. Mumbles, therefore, the consequences of allowing the Iraq War to go to Hell in a handbasket while American soldiers die meaninglessly are positive so long as Bush can be blamed exclusively for the debacle. Looking ahead to 2008, they see their grip on power enhanced, with the prospects of Dimocratic succession to the White House improved. And the purpose of retaining power, of course, is to retain power.
That's where we are. There are exceptions, the "radicals" in Congress, that I will write about later. But I would contend that the analysis above holds for 95% of the Congress and all of the Executive Branch, who are embraced in a kind of Tango of Death. It is a definitive measurement of the breach between living reality and the bizarre world of illusion and imagery in which the pampered ruling class in Washington, D.C. pass their days.
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The Defense of Marriage Alliance, producers of Initiative 957
Along comes the "Defense of Marriage Alliance," tongues thrust deeply into cheeks:
"A certificate of marital procreation." That's good right there. A married couple proves they had a kid by producing a birth certificate before the deadline. Initiative 957, accepted by Washington's Secretary of State, reads just like a real statute; indeed, 957 simply amends Washington's form of the "defense of marriage" act, which states as the premise of confining marriage to one man and one woman the unassailable reality that this is where the babies come from. The Washington state Supreme Court recently enshrined this principle in the decision in Andersen v. King County, which DOMA sententiously quotes in the language of the Initiative. DOMA, like the rest of us clear thinkers, knows that the Washington Supreme Court and the Religious Right use the ability to "procreate" as a distinction precisely because it's something homosexuals can't do inter sese. Gay men need to adopt; gay women need a turkey baster or a male friend.
So, in a satirical move worthy of Bertold Brecht, DOMA calls their bluff. Straight couples have three years to produce the goods, to file a "certificate of procreation," or their marriage loses its legal cover. Simply ingenious. Ingenious because it makes everyone, straight and gay alike, a potential victim of an unthinking prejudice, and nothing focuses one's attention on a prejudice like becoming one of its victims. If heterosexuals object to 957 because it "forces" procreation on people who just want to be married and enjoy the rights of married life without having children, then they must confront an uncomfortable truth. They are denying exactly this "lifestyle" to gay people who want to do the same thing. Yet once the "certificate of procreation" requirement is removed, what is the basis for granting straight couples a right denied to gay couples? If straight couples can enjoy the legal sanctity of marriage without coming across with a kid, then why did the Washington Supreme Court rule the way it did in Andersen? Why should straight couples own the exclusive right to marriage on the basis of a potential which they do nothing with?
The Washington Supreme Court and the Religous Right have to state it plainly. They're against gay marriage because they think it's icky. That should be in their next high-sounding opinion. "We hold today, as we must, that the state sanction of marriage must be confined to those instances in which one man and one woman, having undergone solemnization of their union pursuant to lawful statute, choose to live as husband and wife, because other arrangements, like gays wanting to do it, would be too icky."
Personally, I'm beginning to think that marriages should operate under the same system as driver's licenses. Every five years or so, your marriage expires, and you have to take affirmative steps to renew it. No more coasting for anybody. Think of the legal fees it would save, the hassle of filing a court action for divorce. You simply choose not to renew. And by the way, I think I know something the Religious Right doesn't: my vision has a much greater chance of realization than that life they're counting on in the Hereafter.
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February 14, 2007
When Bush is less than clear about dangerous things
Whenever Bush can be the least bit technical, he's apt to reiterate the point over and over in a self-satisfied attempt to impress. He did that today with "Chapter VII resolutions" from the UN. I don't know how many times he said that, but it was a lot. Chapter VII resolutions are issued out of the Security Council in cases where a threat to world peace exists, as by an act of international aggression. Bush did not explain the reference to the assembled stenographers of the Fourth Estate; I think he enjoyed keeping them in the dark while he showcased his peerless mastery of the arcana of foreign relations. He got going once on "casus belli" in the same way; everything, for a while, was a casus belli. An impertinent question from the docile press corps might have been a casus belli in the dark days before the Iraq invasion.
Anyway, he preens when he can use this kind of insider lingo. Sometimes, however, I think he and Rove make something up just before Bush takes the podium and then the effects are less felicitous. To wit,
I wish I'd been there, because I know the answer. It's much worse if the top echelons of the Iranian government are ordering the Quds force to cooperate with Iraq's Shiite militias. Much worse, since that might indicate a coordinated, officially directed act of war against U.S. forces. Gen. Pace knows that, which is why he said what he said. If we're dealing with rogue elements in the Quds force, or just Iranian sympathizers (using, for example, all the Iraqi and American ordnance we left lying around unguarded after the mission was accomplished in May, 2003), then Bush should (though he won't) rethink the position. For such "rogue elements" in Iran might be analogized to the 15 Saudi hijackers of 9-11, and if I recall correctly, the national provenance of those anti-American terrorists was deemed immaterial in our subsequent dealings with Saudi Arabia. So that even though the Kingdom is located on a peninchula, we left them alone, even as we leave them alone now, although we're aware that Saudi financiers send money and materiel to Sunni insurgents in Iraq who attack American forces.
Bush is not big on what you might call logical consistency, however. If he were, he'd be more concerned than he is about the close ties between Maliki's government and Iran, which came about because of Bush's overthrow of Saddam. So Bush is trying to work up a casus belli against the non-peninchula and so far non-nukular country which most strongly supports the very same government in Iraq which Bush is bankrupting the United States and breaking the U.S. military to defend. Iran, actually, might be seen as more of an ally than a nemesis at this point, but then the 2002 SOTU speech named the starting roster for the Axis of Evil, and Bush just can't let that go. Once you're on The List, you're on The List. That was before, of course, Bush was aware that the Muslims in Iraq were overwhelmingly Shiite, just like the Iranians, and it was fairly predictable that Iran's hand would be strengthened in the region by bringing 15 million Shiites to power in Baghdad.
This may account for why Bush is lapsing more than ever into incoherence, and has taken to posing rhetorical questions which could only be meaningful if he answered them, but he doesn't because he doesn't know what the right answer is. It must make General Pace a little nervous about his new job. The only guy smiling, maniacally as always, there in the front row with his nimbus of baby hair and lunar countenance, is Rove himself, fascinated as Dr. Frankenstein must have been. Just how weird can my monster get?
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The Obtuse American
The Interstate Highway Act of 1957 began the final linkage of suburban metroplexes, followed by the explosive growth of chain restaurants, motels, gas stations, and shopping malls, which finally reached its apotheosis in the development of big box stores driving all local commerce to extinction. We have, during this period, become a kind of Trailer Park Sparta, a nation with a huge military establishment but without national health care or much of a social safety net for its dwindling middle class. The God-obsessed citizenry is haunted by obscurantist ideas about the value of modern science and education. The destruction of the American Bill of Rights by the current neo-Fascist government goes largely unremarked. Things have gotten so bad that in the last two national elections for President, half the voting populace, (sick, obese, poorly educated), hung their chads for George W. Bush, the dimmest bulb in the history of the American Republic.
The working class struggles to support the old and the disabled through confiscatory taxes for retirement and Medicare. What's left over is mostly given to the defense industry, so the executive branch can invade one country after another in a series of endless wars. The wars now always include a phase of "nation building," which means that we still think of ourselves as some kind of model for another country's aspiration. Either that, or we might best analogize our foreign policy to Dadaist art: Marcel Duchamp placed a urinal on a pedestal and called it "Fountain." We build a Taco Bell in the middle of Iraq and call it "America."
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February 12, 2007
The Problem with Hillary
"Of course," I said. "Nothing can stop it."
My confident prediction was based on little more than my opinion of George W. Bush. He had already demonstrated his penchant for pathological lying, and I didn't believe a word he said. He had begun his systematic shredding of the Bill of Rights with his jailing of Jose Padilla and establishment of his concentration camp on Cuba. Many experts had expressed their opinion that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, including Scott Ritter (a former weapons inspector), William Arkin (a defense analyst) and, most notably, Hans Blix, who had been driving around Iraq for months without finding anything. The idea of a connection between Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein was ridiculous on its face.
The war, therefore, was a stupid idea. Hillary Clinton, Senator from New York, voted in October, 2002, to authorize President Bush to do whatever the hell he wanted to do. This was prior to the invasion. Also prior to the invasion, I voted with my feet to oppose the invasion. Thus, our relative positions were clear and marked by overt indicators. There is no going back.
I was right and Hillary Clinton was wrong. How could I possibly vote for a politician, who is briefed by insiders all day long, who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, who knows less than I do? Her subsequent attempts to explain her way out of her cowardly vote have contorted her into positions that would be the envy of a Chinese acrobat troupe. She cannot say she was "wrong," although the milling throngs in New Hampshire have asked her to say just that. "Knowing what I know now," she says, "I certainly would not have authorized Bush to conduct his war." Not so fast, Hillary. A little glib. Under the War Powers Act, the Iraq War is YOUR war. You told Bush to go ahead. And as far as knowing then what you know now? You see, I knew then what you say you didn't know then.
So what the hell were you doing? You were caving in, that's all. And because it seems to you that a good offense is the best defense, you're attacking the "simplicity" of Barack Obama's get the hell out approach. "Anyone can say, 'just leave'," you sneer. But you see, Hill: Obama was against the damn thing to begin with. He doesn't think we should ever have been there.
I just love the way your handlers describe your highly nuanced position on phased withdrawal. They say your position more closely "reflects the political mainstream." So that's why you say what you do now? You looked around the Senate chamber, read the editorials in the Washington Post and New York Times, and figured out what was good to believe? Is that the same thing as the right thing to believe?
Here's a clue. The political mainstream is not the same as the opinion of the American people. That's why you're getting all those tough questions. Those rock-ribbed people in New Hampshire are on to you. They don't ask questions like Andrea Mitchell and Tim Russert ask. They know you voted the way you did because your political calculations favored a "safe" approach of belligerence, and if the war was a success, whether it was the right thing to do or not, you would look like you made a smart call. When it went south, when it turned out there was no reason for the invasion at all, you started crabbing about Bush's incompetence in conducting this fiasco.
Nope, you still don't get it. You're going to have to admit you chickened out. You can't even say, "I made a mistake." When there are two boxes to check, and you know the right answer but check the other one because of your vaulting ambition, you didn't make a "mistake." You took the easy way out. That's what you have to say. You have to forgo your triangulating, calculating, outside-in approach to moral choosing. Or that vaulting ambition will not fall upon another, as the Bard said. It will fall on you.
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February 08, 2007
The institutionalization of the military-industrial complex
George W. Bush's proposed budget for Fiscal Year 2008 is a disgrace. It allocates 51% of the discretionary budget (exclusive of the cash-in/cash-out system of the entitlement programs) to the Pentagon. Bush asks for an 11% increase in the military budget exclusive of the horrendous costs of our crazy occupation of Iraq. If you wanted to see what chastening effect the 2006 elections would have on the psychology of an infantile man with a narcissistic personality disorder, there's your answer. Bush's response to his massive defeat at the polls, to his subterranean approval ratings, to his diminution in the American mind to the status of an imbecile, is to say go to Hell. In your face. Up yours.
Bush is determined to use his remaining tenure in office to enrich certain sectors of the American business community. There's really nothing else for him to do. He was never interested in governing the country as part of a disciplined effort to improve the lives of the American people as a whole. His dumb war bogged down and became an embarrassment, but also a self-renewing feeding trough for the fattest pigs in the American plutocracy. Bush's natural constituency. Bush loves doing favors for the fat cats, and it was a pretty nifty plan, he thinks, to use the American military to execute the business plan of corporate America. How many countries can do that? Probably only a country that spends more on "defense" (from...?) than the next 14 countries combined, and over half of all money spent on defense...on...the...planet Earth.
I think we can say two things for sure. Defense spending in the United States is unrelated to the "existential" threats that America faces. While we have, through the stupidity of abrogating the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, rekindled a nuclear arms race with Russia, it is also true that the Iraq War has demonstrated that a huge military apparatus, with all the latest electronic doodads, doesn't work very well against the episodic and ad hoc character of "terrorist" threats. Would anything this 11% increase will buy have stopped 9/11? No, that simply required smart people doing their jobs, and on that score, this Administration is bankrupt.
Dwight Eisenhower warned us a long time ago this would happen. He was right. Bush and his (still) compliant Congress are utterly shameless about funneling American taxpayer bucks to their friends, the merchants of death. Maybe Congress will strike back and cut the Pentagon budget in half! Maybe they'll conclude spending only 25 cents of every dollar spent on the world's militaries is enough to defend one country. Maybe Ben&Jerry's ice cream will be dispensed from the assholes of all those corporate pigs!

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February 07, 2007
Don Fitz Quixote almost done tilting at windmills
One huge question remains. Paragraph 25 of the Libby indictment reads as follows: "On or about September 26, 2003, the Department of Justice authorized the Federal Bureau of Investigation ("FBI") to commence a criminal investigation into the possible unauthorized disclosure of classified information regarding the disclosure of Valerie Wilson's affiliation with the CIA in the spring of 2003." So that was Fitz's mission too, I presume. The lying, perjury and obstruction of justice he discovered along the way were in the course of investigating what one might call the "substantive" crime of unauthorized leaking of classified information and the protected identity of a CIA undercover agent. Valerie Plame, it has been disclosed, was engaged in what is probably the most important of all clandestine activity, espionage into proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including the nuclear ambitions of that charter member of the Axis of Evil, Iran.
The question then is this: what the hell happened to that investigation? The real one? Fitzgerald's meticulous work appears to have revealed a conspiracy originating in Cheney's office and in the Oval Office itself; that is to say, on at least a prima facie basis, Bush's casual declassification of a National Intelligence Estimate to counter Joseph Wilson's claims is an overt act in furtherance of a criminal conspiracy to violate the Espionage Act (leaking classified information) and the Identities Act (blowing the cover of an undercover agent). As has been suggested by prosecutors with a broader view of the investigation's potential, Cheney at the least should be an unindicted co-conspirator. And Bush? The man who promised that anyone working in his Administration would be terminated if found to have participated in the leaking of classified information to the press? Why isn't that the basis of a similar charge for obstruction of justice?
The clowns hanging around the White House at public expense, obsessed with being revealed as the liars they are about the phony justification for the war in Iraq -- they undermined the meticulous work of an American spy who was working in the very field these jerks claim is the key to avoiding Armageddon. They did it knowingly, secretively, traitorously. And the Libby case is what we get at the end of the process?
I hope Fitzgerald loses. I hope the jury figures out what a dodge, what a cop-out Fitzgerald's case is. Maybe they'll think along these lines. Maybe they'll say to themselves, how can you obstruct an investigation into something where the prosecutor says, at the end, no crime was committed? How can lies about perfectly legal activity be material and consequential? Why should we care? Fitzgerald, in his zeal for a meticulous and airtight case, sliced off a tiny piece of a huge and rancid pie. A case of transparent lying where he felt certain he could not miss with a conviction. The Big Case, the one where Bush, Cheney, Rove, Libby, Armitage all worked together to undermine a hardworking American spy, and in so doing gave aid and comfort to America's "existential" enemies--for such a case, Fitzgerald had no appetite. He might, after all, have lost that untried case because of its order-of-magnitude greater legal difficulties and technicalities. And in losing, he might actually have accomplished something for the United States.
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February 06, 2007
Alice Encounters the Steely Resolve of the Dimocrats
In a little while, however, Alice knew she must still be in Wonderland (for over 6 years now!). Standing at the edge of yet another clearing, Alice saw a gazebo surrounded by a milling throng of expostulating Solons, harrumphing, yelling, thrusting their fists in the air and, in general, carrying on in an excited manner. There must have been at least 50 of them, although, with a closer look, Alice thought there might be only 49-1/2. What a curious number of Solons, she thought. Up on the raised platform of the gazebo was a woman with dark hair arranged in an elaborate 'do, with startlingly large eyes, attempting to gain control of the shouting crowd.
"Come to order!" mumbled a diminutive fellow in a morning coat, standing on the first step of the gazebo. "La Diva wishes to speak."
"Fellow Dimocrats," she began. "I have come all the way from my House to speak to you about a matter of urgent importance. The Mad Hatter is expanding his war against the Eastern Spades even as we meet. We must stop him! We must! We must!"
Alice made her way closer and found herself next to a man of medium height, dark hair and a sour demeanor. "Then stop him," he muttered.
"Excuse me, but what is La Diva talking about?" she asked.
He turned to her. "The Hatter's war," he said. "He's determined to corner the market in felt."
"And who are you?" Alice asked demurely.
"Who are you?" he replied abruptly. "Are you a page? If you are, you should leave now. This is no place for little girls."
"I'm Alice, and I'm lost," she said.
"You're in the right place then," he said, returning his gaze to the platform. He looked down again. "But to answer your question, I'm Rust Goldfine, and I'm a Solon. We're meeting here to stop the Hatter's war."
"I vote that we vote!" someone in the crowd shouted. "Vote now! Vote now! Let's express our disagreement with the Mad Hatter in no uncertain terms! Let's make it clear that we disagree with him. That will show him!"
"What is he talking about?" Alice asked Rust.
"Nothing," said Rust.
"The Mad Hatter will be held accountable for his war!" La Diva attempted to shout, but it came out in a kind of refined sing-song. "We really, really disagree, and we're going to tell him so!"
"Will that stop the Hatter's war?" asked Alice hopefully. She thought wars were dreadful, in the silly way of little girls everywhere.
"Not for a moment," said Rust.
"Then why is she saying that?" asked Alice.
"She's the new head of the Caucus of Dimocrats, who represent most of the Queen's subjects. They hate the war, and want her to end it no matter what."
"But the vote won't do that?" asked Alice, beginning to experience that disorienting sense of confusion which overtook so many of her afternoons in Wonderland.
"No. Only taking away the Hatter's money could do that," said Rust.
"And she can't do that," said Alice dismally.
"Oh no. She could at once." Rust pointed to the large burlap bags grouped around a stout oak at the edge of the clearing. "Those are full of gold coins, which the Mad Hatter & The Troll must have to keep fighting the Eastern Spades."
"And La Diva can deny that to the Hatter?" Alice said, allowing herself, against her better judgment, a moment of cautious hope.
"She could," said Rust. "But then she's afraid the Dimocrats will look as if they don't care about the Hatter's troops, who will die in the field without the gold. Or so they all say."
"So the gold protects them," Alice murmured.
"Oh no," said Rust. "The Hatter's soldiers keep dying, killed by Eastern Spades in the Hatter's war."
"Which La Diva could end by keeping the gold here," said Alice glumly.
"Smart little girl," said Rust. "Are you sure you're not a page?"
"So La Diva will show she cares about the Hatter's troops by sending them the gold they need to stay in the Land of the Eastern Spades where the Spades will kill them."
"Bingo, kid. Welcome to the Realm of the Dimocrats."
"One consolation, at least," muttered Alice.
"What's that?" asked Rust.
"At least now I know the Tea Party wasn't such an aberration. Until I get out of Wonderland, nothing's ever going to make sense."
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February 05, 2007
Manufacturing consent on Iraq
Yet his analysis suggests the creation of a world that actual humans could never sustain. He seems terribly impatient with human foibles, and rejects reality, which is that we're always accepting one evil in the hope of avoiding a greater one. Unquestionably, the United States does bad things, and shares this proclivity with other powerful nations in world history. Yet overall, it's probably true that the USA commits evil-doing in the pursuit of living standards that the world community, in general, considers desirable and good, which is why world opinion (until Bush) cut us so much slack. Much more than Noam Chomsky cuts us.
I don't know if his view is Utopian, precisely, because I've never been able to descry what he really proposes as a way people should organize themselves politically and socially. He seems to say everything is bad, all polities are flawed, but that certain places (East Timor, Nicaragua, etc.) achieve a kind of temporary virtue on their way from subjugation toward social maturity. I think what he's really saying (whether he ever says it or not) is that human beings are bad news, and in this (ultimately trivial) observation he has a great deal of philosophical company. We know that, Noam; how many more books do you need to write reminding us?
Yet on his way to describing the corrupt senescence of an old body politic like the United States, he sometimes illuminates our predicament with lightning bolt brilliance. I think it's fair to say that it was Chomsky who first pointed out the illusion of believing that the mass media were "value neutral." The mass media, which shape political discourse and set the parameters of "acceptable alternatives," are owned by large corporate organizations with a vested interest in a certain kind of pro-business status quo. There is only so much time and space to discuss the political landscape, and stories are chosen, edited and presented based on such factors as entertainment value and the ways in which they fit into a narrative which serves the business interests of the medium presenting them. Information is owned by a relative handful of large business organizations in the United States. They don't broadcast just anything. They are not dedicated in some idealistic way to the dissemination of any and all opinions, as if free speech were their first and only priority. Not at all.
The limitations of the narrative, thus defined, Chomsky called "manufacturing consent." These limitations establish the bandwidth of acceptable discourse. "Responsible" opinion-makers cannot venture outside these boundaries. In the case of Iraq, we have a playing field which has a right hand boundary defined by Bush's determination to keep pouring men and money into the middle of Iraq's disintegrating Hell. The left hand boundary is marked by Congress, which by a certain majority prefers to express its "disagreement" with Bush's ideas through "nonbinding resolutions," which is a way to do absolutely nothing while appearing to be powerful.
That's it. There's your government in action, and it makes you, really, somewhat more sympathetic to Chomsky, when you're done thinking about it, than when you began. You share his frustration and rage. Within this manufactured debate are certain "truths" which are considered self-evident, but which are not only not self-evident but are not true at all. These include the following illusions:
1. Iraq's "failure" would result from an American withdrawal.
2. The suspension of funding for the war would leave American troops helplessly trapped in Baghdad.
3. America's enemies would be emboldened by America's "defeat."
These statements are all unequivocally false. They are used by both sides of the "debate" in order to avoid discussing reality. America's presence in Iraq at this point is solely to ensure disproportionate access to Iraq's huge oil reserves, and to satisy the insatiable desire of American business for the spoils of war. This, however, cannot be openly discussed, for it is the hidden agenda of the business conglomerations who control Congress, the President and the mass media.
The truth is that the disintegration of Iraq followed immediately from the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. It was a tripartite schism waiting to happen, and when Bush declared "Mission Accomplished!" he was almost right. Full accomplishment had to await the capture of Saddam, at which point the deal was done. Iraq as a coherent state was finished. It had "failed." This was not foreseen by the Bush Administration because they don't read books or understand history.
Cutting off funding for the war, which is Congress's clear and immediate responsibility, would not result in U.S. casualties. It would at first reduce them, then eliminate them altogether. The oft-repeated misrepresentation to the contrary, by the likes of La Diva, Mr. Mumbles and now Dianne Feinstein, is to create the impression that their pro-war proclivities (which serve, in Feinstein's case, her military contracting constituency in California) are in some way inevitable or the result of statesmanship. For the next two years, Bush has asked for $245 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, above and beyond the basic Pentagon budget, for which he also asks an 11% increase. Say no to these supplements, Congress. Tell Bush he can use the Pentagon budget to extract the troops.
Finally, the Muslim world understands much better than the typical American viewer of "Survivor" or "American Idol" why Iraq disintegrated, because the Muslim world knows why sectarian violence exists in Iraq. The USA's persistence in believing that Iraq's factions can be held together by an army simply demonstrates that America is stupid, willfully ignorant, or completely corrupted by its lust for oil. Leaving Iraq would offer evidence that we learned something, and would tend to quell anti-American hostility caused by the presence of an occupying force.
A few Senators and Representatives who operate outside the boundaries of manufactured consent will point these things out (Bernie Sanders, Dennis Kucinich, Russ Feingold). They will not carry the day. Bush will escalate, the Congress will "disagree," and the war will go on, while the cash registers ring and the latest abduction in Aruba occupies center stage.
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January 30, 2007
Why Scooter Lied
The instinct might be most acute when the lawyer suspects, in an ass-puckering moment, that he himself might actually be in legal jeopardy. For an ethical violation, or an error or omission, or even the commission of a crime. Given that lawyers are often operating right out there at the fringe of legal permissibility (it's why they're hired, to take on a legally fraught situation where the client is in dire straits and needs a risk-taker), such moments are not as rare as the lay public might think. Every litigating lawyer, as a wise senior attorney once told me long ago, lives in his own private hell.
At such a moment, the lawyer's mind seeks frantically for the escape route, the exception within the statute, the bulletproof defense. If none seems immediately available, the legal instinct is to examine what has already happened to see if the tweaking of reality might improve things. The invention of a "new" fact, one that never happened, just might take the pressure off. A substitute matrix, a better reality than the bitter one that keeps the lawyer awake at night.
Scooter Libby is now on trial in Washington, D.C. for perjury, lying and obstruction of justice, but all the counts relate to the same central dilemma. Libby told Patrick Fitzgerald and the grand jury that he learned about Valerie Plame's CIA connection from reporters, and not the other way around. It wasn't true. At trial, Scooter now must sell the argument that he was so busy he can't remember how he first found out. This is isn't true either, and Fitzgerald knows it. Fitzgerald knows it because of Title 50, Section 421, United States Code Annotated, the Protection of Certain National Security Information, or the "Identities Act."
Here are the elements, the matrix. The perpetrator must:
1. Have authorized access to classified information that identifies a covert agent; and
2. Intentionally disclose information identifying such agent to an individual without classified clearance; and
3. Know that the information disclosed identifies such covert agent; and
4. Know that the United States is taking affirmative measures to conceal such covert agent's intelligence relationship to the United States.
Those are a lot of semicolons and ands. Yet Scooter, looking down that list (after David Addington, one hears, informed him about its nasty applicability), could find little solace within it. (1) is all too easy: Scooter had high security clearance as the Vice President's chief of staff, and his knowledge of Valerie Plame's name and role were the result of a classified CIA briefing. (2) Well, he told a bunch of reporters about Valerie Plame's connection to Joe Wilson's trip, and threw in that she worked for the Agency. The reporters did not have clearance. (3) Not too tough there: he gave the reporters her name, the best kind of information for identifying a covert agent. And (4) Oops. The CIA immediately demanded an investigation after Novak's column "outed" Valerie Plame, contending it was a violation of this very Section 421 --highly suggestive of a previous intent to keep her name secret.
So Scooter, simply doing a piece of typical hatchet work for Dick Cheney, trying to please the old Side-Smiler, suddenly found himself the point man for a heavy fine and a possible ten-year stretch in the federal pen. When questioned by Fitzgerald, and while testifying before the grand jury, Scooter didn't know whether anyone was going to be charged under the Identities Act. So he came up with something. Something a little desperate and frankly unworthy of a published novelist. He decided to finesse matters by short-circuiting the very first requirement up there. Element #1. He would say that he didn't learn Valerie's name from his access to classified information. Scooter would say that the reporters told him. The bear trap of Section 421 could remain unsprung.
There were two problems with this neat evasion. First, it wasn't true. Second, it was transparent as hell, and a prosecutor as smart as Fitzgerald would immediately recognize it for the pathetic dodge it was.
But, to be fair, I have a question: so what? Patrick Fitzgerald never indicted anyone for the real crime, the real, serious damage, which was the intentional disclosure of a covert agent's name. A covert agent who worked undercover in anti-proliferation issues through the "brass plate" cover of Brewster Jennings Co., who may have run foreign agents whose lives were placed in jeopardy by the sudden disclosure of their cover by the Executive Branch of the United States of America. Fitzgerald passed on that. So if Scooter obstructed an investigation underlying a prosecution that Fitzgerald never intended to pursue, what does an incidental lie about disclosure have to do with...well, anything? Is Fitzgerald's righteous zeal about protecting the "integrity of the system?" Not worth the candle, in my opinion. Fitzgerald knew why Scooter lied, Scooter knew, and now you do if you didn't before.
Fitzgerald's case is makeweight, an excuse for pulling back from the real issue, an alibi for not pursuing Rove and Cheney, a reason to hang around the power center of Washington D.C. for a couple of years. Scooter's life is wrecked, but he never seemed like the baddest of the bad. He was doing a dirty job, as lawyers often do. And, as lawyers often do, he got too creative at the wrong moment and found there was hell to pay.
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Amateur hour in Washington, D.C.
"Why, Sir, a man who talks nonsense so well, must know that he is talking nonsense." Dr. Johnson, about 200 years ago.
I'm not so sure in W's case, although this may simply result from Bush's position outside the bell curve of normal human stupid-variation. He's always talked nonsense about Iraq. "It's the central front in the war on terror," "we fight them there so we don't have to fight them here," and so on. Always, always I get the sense that Bush, confined as he is to the emotional age he achieved before descending to the bottom of countless whiskey bottles, thinks like a 9 year old, and not like a precocious 9 year old. More precisely, like a 9 year old cribbing a social studies paper on Iraq from the I-J volume of the World Book Encyclopedia, circa 1955. What distinguishes the truly simple mind from the discerning mind is the inability of the former to think in terms of simultaneous complex variables, and the tendency of the simpleton to use "concepts" instead of "facts." Facts are hard to deal with, because you have to read, think and synthesize them into a pattern with other facts you have learned the same way. This is what really smart people instinctively know, and always do. They know there are never any shortcuts to understanding anything. Bush doesn't do things like that. He grabs at the broadest generalities he can find and settles there, permanently.
Bush began his Iraq war on the simple proposition that everyone in Iraq was an "Iraqi" who was a "person" just like every other person in the world, and all people like Western-style democracy because it's the best system. That's it. He started there, and he's still there. If you listen to anything he says about Iraq, that reductive nullity lies at the very root. Thus, he identifies the "enemy" in Iraq (as he did in the SOTU address) as a non-specific, freedom-hating killer. Period. The "government" in Iraq is not an Iranian-influenced coalition of Shiite parties in an opportunistic alliance with Kurdish leaders (the Kurds cooperating in order to assure their eventual complete independence in Kurdistan, with the inclusion of Kirkuk), but the "democratically elected government of Iraq." Thus, anyone not cooperating with this central government holed up in a six-mile fortress in Baghdad is the "enemy" who should be hunted down and killed, with the assistance of as many American soldiers as we can scrounge up.
I read other blogs, of course, including the big collating blogs like the Huffington Post, and where I probably part company with a lot of dissident commentary is in the ascription of cupidity to Bush, or the tendency to place him at the center of a vast criminal conspiracy with other Bushian malfeasors. I can probably be quoted to my own contradiction on this point, but I don't see Bush's awful incompetence, secrecy, and (in effect) evil-doing as primarily the result of bad intentions. Cheney, I see otherwise. There the charges of malice aforethought make sense. Cheney is an undermining force in American life with huge destructive tendencies. While not half as smart as he thinks he is, he's clever enough to engineer war-profiteering on an enormous scale and to play Bush like a badly-tuned violin.
Bush is not now, nor is he likely to become, Big Rich by Texas standards. He doesn't even have $100 million, the minimum "Unit" necessary to hang with J.R. Ewing and the boys at the Oil Barons Club. Cheney, on the other hand, has gotten very, very rich, and while he'll never live long enough to enjoy the bonanza he could have reaped after this Administration sinks beneath the oil slick of history (so many grateful CEO's would have crowded round), he loves that game of making rich people even richer, of basking in the reflected glow of other Insiders who love war and all the money it can make.
Bush is just a natural born screw-up, a guy who could never become a pro at anything. A permanent amateur, and not a talented one. I continue to think, as I have said before, that his presence in the Oval Office says something profoundly disturbing about the state of the union, and maybe what it says most of all is that the abandonment of the political arena by all the talented Americans who decided to make money instead left behind only two classes of people to run the country and take our money in taxes for their own use: fools and liars, and they're both in ascendance in Washington now.
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January 24, 2007
The Pondman Wrote Us about the POTUS Giving his SOTUS
No, we've got George. It must be true, because he was on TV last night. By a fortuitous juxtaposition, I picked up Peter Galbraith's essential "The End of Iraq" the other evening at Borders, and I was halfway through it when the speech began. The book had impressed upon me the deep complexity of the political situation in Iraq. It also described the context (an Oval Office meeting between Bush and leaders of the Kurds) in which Bush betrayed, two months before the invasion he ordered, his complete ignorance about the two Muslim sects vying for power in Iraq. Yet there was Bush, struggling to pronounce words, fumbling through the text of a speech written by someone else, reducing the entire world to a Manichean duality of "us" and the "enemy," and reiterating that the "enemy" in Iraq must be defeated to complete the "mission." Willfully or haphazardly, Bush conflated the 9/11 attackers with this same "enemy," lumping them all together as terrorists who must be defeated in the "defining struggle of our age." The Congressional house went stone quiet as Bush described the dark world of his fearful imagining, one haunted every moment by an unseen, mononlithic enemy comprised of "killers" and "freedom haters."
He's so deeply weird. Taken to its logical extreme (as one must with Bush's "analysis"), Bush simply proposes to keep killing until no one is left to challenge us. We'll never be safe, no victory will ever be final, not in Iraq, not anywhere. On whose side are we fighting in Iraq? The good guys, presumably. A fussbudget like Galbraith unhelpfully points out that the "good guys" in Iraq are members of parties with names like the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), spawned and supported by Shiites in Iran, or the Dawa Party of Nouri al-Maliki, organized and strengthened during the days of exile in Syria. Presumably, the "good guys" are to be propped up and supported only by Iraqi regular army and police, Sunnis and Shiites who have risen above their sectarian identification (or who desperately need a job), cooperating with the Americans. The task of this mythical alliance is to defeat all the "bad guys," who must be Sunni insurgents, Shiite death squads, Shiite militia, the Badr Brigade, the Mahdi Army, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Syrian and Iranian infiltrators, freelance Arab mercenaries and anyone else who causes trouble, such as the Kurdish separatists in the north, who have a de facto separate country already in operation. Victory will be complete when none of these groups causes any trouble anymore, and the coalition government elected by the purple-fingered masses, those who have not already fled Iraq (as 40% of the former middle class have already done) rules a serene, prosperous, democratic country.
That's the plan. It doesn't matter how long it will take. At some point, al-Maliki or some other prime minister will actually venture outside the Green Zone and take control of a united country where Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds live in tranquil harmony. Would you ever grasp the slightest hint of the complexity of the undertaking from Bush's speech last night? Looked at in all its daunting ramifications, why on Earth would 20,000 more American troops (which Bush allocated to specific zones of Iraq in his speech, I suppose to save the "enemy" time in figuring out the deployment) make any difference?
Still, he must really be up there, behind the podium, his simple, vacuous mind struggling with huge, complex problems involving many layers and many moving parts which interact, one with the other to produce a kaleidoscopic mess. Congress looks on, horrified, yet politically too timid to do what they really ought to do: Use the Constitution to move Bush and Cheney out. Stop pretending anything about this is normal. Seize control before it's too late.
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January 23, 2007
FAQ About Tonight's State of the Union
Q: Does Bush have any idea what in the hell he's doing anymore?
A: None whatsoever, but thanks for asking.
Q: Why is he dumber than a sack full of lug nuts?
A: Theories abound, but the most common idea is that (a) he's pretty stupid to begin with, and (b) he's systematically eliminated everyone around him who tells him anything he doesn't want to hear, no matter how good their ideas are. Thus, Richard Clarke, Colin Powell, Gen. Shinseki, etc. are all gone, and we're left with the Spelling Bee Champ as Sec. of State and Richard Hadley, whose pallor and effete demeanor strongly suggest he was brought back to life with a shot of green potion from the Reanimator.
Q: Can we get our money back from the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group?
A: I see what you mean, but probably not.
Q: What new initiatives can we expect in tonight's speech?
A: Bush can only propose things that no one else thought of first, such as his unique idea of increasing American troop strength in Iraq by about 14%, thus increasing the ratio of U.S. troops from 140,000/25,000,000 to 160,000/25,000,000, or a net increase from .0056 of the population all the way up to .0064 of the Iraqi population.
Q: That sounds really dumb.
A.: It wasn't my idea.
Q: What about the environment? Anything new there?
A: Bush will propose a greatly enhanced use of ethanol to deal with global warming.
Q: So he's into the whole biofuel thing now? That seems like progress.
A: It's a breakthrough in the sense that Bush is acknowledging climate change. However, his idea is that Americans drink it as a way of dealing with the coming catastrophe.
Q: Is he like the worst President ever?
A: Probably, and I hedge my answer only because Bush probably has set the stage for tremendous problems in the future, and his hapless successors may look worse just because of what they're dealing with.
Q: How did it come to this?
A: A lot of people ask that. One clue is that Grand Canyon federal employees are now discouraged from talking about how old the Canyon is so they won't offend religious tourists.
Q: So who still supports him? Who are these 30% or whatever?
A: The glib answer is people just like him. Pay attention to his single veto, of stem cell research, and his position on abortion recently announced, which is that it should be limited to Carmelite nuns raped by HIV-positive psychopaths, provided the Sister seeks the procedure during the first trimester.
Q: Just how messed up is this country?
A: I'm sorry, we're out of time now. The speech is about to begin.
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January 22, 2007
The Iraq Obsession
What is Iraq? Before we invaded, it was an artificial country stitched together out of 3 disparate parts by Winston Churchill in 1921, who later called it the "biggest mistake of my political life." In 2002, it was held together, as it had been for about 23 years, by the iron, despotic rule of Saddam Hussein. Sometimes the United States liked Saddam so much we helped him target the Iranian army for poison gas bombardment (this set a precedent for our casual dismissal of Geneva Conventions, such as the protocol against poison gas of 1925). Sometimes we didn't like him, such as when we needed to sell military spare parts to the Iranians during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 to raise illegal money for the Contras.
We always liked the oil under the sands and and under the northern hills, the second largest reserves in the world. Without the oil, and without the perceived threat to Israel, Iraq is simply a Middle Eastern version of Darfur. Bad things happened there, but who gave a shit? Enter the Neo-conservatives, with their wistful theory of social engineering. At heart they were hawkish liberals armed with a reverse domino theory; if Iraq could be transformed, the rest of the Middle East would follow suit. Huh? you might say. No, that was actually the theory. They recognized it might seem implausible, so it was necessary to sell the Iraq invasion as a war of defense. The authorization for use of military force against Iraq in the fall of 2002 was easily passed by a compliant and lazy Congress, a Pass-Go card given to Bush by some of his current vociferous critics, such as Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, all those Democratic Senators running for President on an anti-war platform.
Saddam was no threat. At the time of the invasion 4 years ago, it had been 13 years since he had raised a belligerent paw against anyone. He had settled into a kind of senescent self-indulgence, building palaces and monuments to himself instead of offensive weapons. He still had all that oil, which he sold for cash to fund his own aggrandizement. He starved his people. He was an evil, rotten despot, but as evil, rotten despots go, he was relatively harmless.
Iraq has 25 million people, about one-third the size of Iran, about one-fourth the size of Egypt. The Kurds don't want to be part of Iraq, the Shiites want to establish an Islamic theocracy in alliance with Iran, and the Sunnis don't want to be ruled by the Shia. Our occupation simply delays the day when such centrifugal forces will split Iraq asunder.
Meanwhile, this weird monomania paralyzes the United States. Our politics, our budget, the national attention is held hostage to Iraq. There are so many interesting, helpful, fun things we could have been doing with all that time and money. We could have built a national railroad. We could have developed alternative fuels to make the oil of the Middle East irrelevant. We could have instituted universal health care. We could have used that last critical window of opportunity to deal with global warming. The opportunity cost of the Iraq War is staggeringly incalculable. It is not too much to say that it may be difficult for the United States to recover from this blunder. We have borrowed so much money from potentially hostile countries in order to keep the game afloat. That foreign debt casts a long shadow over the future, and right at a time when all serious bureaucratic adults recognize that the Medicare and Social Security funding crises are right around the corner. We could run out of money. We might default on our debt.
By acting as if Bush had some vague idea what he was doing, in refusing to challenge him and to shut this stupid war down, Congress and a large percentage of the American people have taken us to the brink of catastrophe. We forget, sometimes, that Bush is entirely capable of massive failure; his resume is a categorization of such failures, over and over. His private enterprise efforts were case studies in fiscal exsanguination. He's taken the national debt to 9 trillion dollars, and still he keeps borrowing to finance this war. He "balances" the budget by the simple expedient of not counting the money the nation actually spends, such as when it raids the Social Security "trust fund" and "supplements" the defense budget with more money for Iraq.
Where will it all end? Why won't Congress impeach him and stop the Iraq War? What strange gods are they serving?
Posted by
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January 21, 2007
A Civics Lesson for the McLuhan Age
"With that vote, our hope, really our prayer, is that the president will finally listen, listen to the generals, listen to the Iraq Study Group, listen to the American people and listen to a bipartisan Congress,'' Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Friday, bristling when a reporter asked whether the vote would be substantive or symbolic.
"I don't really know what you mean by 'symbolic.' I believe that a bipartisan resolution saying we don't want the escalation of the war in Iraq is the beginning of the end of the present policy in Iraq,'' Reid said. San Francisco Chronicle, January 21, 2007, Marc Sandalow reporting (a very good reporter, btw).
Mumbles, methinks thou doth protest too much. Nevertheless, I think I can help here, Harry. A "symbolic" vote is one which the President can legally and Constitutionally ignore, and then do whatever the hell he feels like doing. Let us apply this definition to your "bipartisan resolution." Okay, the answer's in already: your resolution is symbolic, and it is not the beginning of the end of anything, unless it is the beginning of the end of the American citizenry, who want this goddam war over, taking you seriously about anything at all. Let me give you a case in point: how successful was the bipartisan bill in the last Congress which restored federal spending to embryonic stem cell research? How well did the President listen?
I do think the idea of "praying" is a nice touch. That's your best shot if you want Bush to come around. What you don't seem to get, Mr. Mumbles (and it's a cluelessness shared by your counterpart in the House, La Diva Pelosi), is that you do not understand Bush by means of "policy analysis." If you want to figure out Bush, you need to begin reading books on Abnormal Psychology, with special attention to personality disorders, and then burrow down further to "histrionic personalities." It's all there, Mr. Majority Leader. If you want to know why absolutely everything you do in a precatory, placating manner fails to yield the desired result, you will find the answers therein (to use Bugs Bunny's favorite preposition). Bugs Bunny, by the way, could teach you a lot about how to deal with bad guys. He didn't mollify, plead or beg. He outsmarted them or used fiendishly clever force. I would encourage you to obtain a DVD of the Best of Bugs, especially one that contains "Racketeer Rabbit," where Bugs, bunking down one rainy night in an abandoned house, finds it taken over by gangsters Rocky & Hugo. Rocky is a lot like Edward G. Robinson, of course, and Bugs, beginning at a point of complete helplessness, uses guile and cunning to turn the tables on Rocky, and finally sends the gangster running panic-stricken down the road to escape another of the Rabbit's clever tricks. Bugs did not bother with "symbolic resolutions" to appeal to Rocky's better side, because Rocky didn't have one. Neither does Bush. Whatever label you choose to use after leafing through the DSM psychological tables (narcissist, anti-social personality) does not matter so much. The important thing is for you to recognize what you're dealing with.
Put Kurt Vonnegut on your reading list too, including his sort-of memoir A Man Without A Country. Despite the title, Vonnegut is a World War II vet who loves the United States and laments its hostile takeover by people he calls "PPs," short for Psychopathic Personalities. "PPs are presentable, they know full well the suffering their actions may cause others, but they do not care. They cannot care because they are nuts...They might have felt that taking our country into an endless war was simply something decisive to do. What has allowed so many PPs to rise so high in corporations, and now in government, is that they are so decisive...Unlike normal people, they are never filled with doubts, for the simple reason that they don't give a fuck what happens next."
Kurt is describing people who lack a conscience. I suspect the Democratic leadership already knows the Bush High Command fits the diagnosis, and they don't need my reading and viewing list. So who are the Dems trying to fool with their "symbolic resolution?" The answer is simple: Us. By doing something that won't work, which appeals only to the Imaginary Focus Group which operates as a wind sock for each of Hillary Clinton's "evolving positions," the Dems can appear to do something without risking responsibility. It's not impressive. Their out, their excuse, is that they must "support the troops" (as La Diva so recently reiterated) by sending money to Iraq to keep the grunts riding around in their Humvees until they're blown sky high over Baghdad.
What a load of crap. They have the power; they just won't use what Lee Hamilton, at Indiana University's Center for Congress, calls their main leverage: "The power of the purse is the most important power of Congress. James Madison in the Federalist papers called it 'the most complete and effectual weapon with which any constitution can arm the immediate representatives of the people'. It checks the power of the President and gives Congress vast influence over American society, because federal spending reaches into the life of every citizen." Refuse to approve any more spending requests from Bush in the form of his Iraq "supplementals." Tell him the money he now has is for the purpose of getting the troops home safely; after that, there will be no more money. As the Commander-in-Chief, that becomes his new and only duty, where the Iraq war is concerned: to oversee the withdrawal of a military force which no longer has Congressional funding to prosecute the "war." You figure it out, George; you put them there. Now get them home.
Posted by
Waldenswimmer
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Labels: Iraq