Waldenswimmer: 1/26/14

The President's brave pronouncement was greeted by bemused tweets from polar bears, such as #longdistanceswimmer: "Do tell." Bark beetle #chewylarue sent a message from the Kenai Peninsula to beetles still working the decimated forests of East Texas: "Dudes! It's like Vegas up here - virgin spruce, females on the loose. Head north before they do something."

There is not much danger of that, not yet anyway. A few more Tallahassee blizzards or 100 percent melting of the Arctic ice cap might bring people around, but the media-narcotized American populace hasn't figured anything out yet. "Climate change is real." Okay, so what's that mean? I thought Kim Kardashian's butt was real too, and where did that get me?

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.

In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.

Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

Sometimes I find myself strangely reassured by contrarian voices, such as Mike Shedlock's blog at Mish's Global Trend Analysis. Mike is sharp on issues such as the real state of American employment, falling gasoline usage (because of our broke-ass status), and other ideas that cut against the grain of the feel-good mainstream media. Look what Mike has to say about "global warming hysteria:"

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.
In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.
Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

I had not seen that old hoary argument trotted out in a while: the Earth has cooled since 1998; how can global warming be underway if it's getting colder? Which U.N. Report does he mean? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is itself a U.N. institution; is that what he means, the IPCC itself, which up until I read Mish's dismissal of the hysteria I had understood as definitely among the hysterics.

Rather, I am against carbon trading schemes, taxpayer funding of green energy, and other silliness based on global warming hysteria.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.
In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.
Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.

In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.

Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

Rather, I am against carbon trading schemes, taxpayer funding of green energy, and other silliness based on global warming hysteria.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.
In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.
Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.

In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.

Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

Denialists love 1998 because it is such a good starting point for them. It was an extraordinarily hot El Nino year, and smashed temperature records worldwide; thus, if you begin there, it seems that the "rate of change" has slowed in comparison, say, to

One can clearly see the extreme year 1998, which (thanks to the record-El Niño) stands out above the long-term trend like no other year. But even taking this outlier year as starting point, the linear trend 1998-2013 in all four data sets is positive. Also clearly visible is 2010 as the warmest year since records began, and the minima in the years 2008 and 2011/2012. But just like the peaks are getting higher, these minima are less and less deep. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013/#more-16736

the rate of change from 1997 to 1998. Of course, one must point out that it's an extraordinarily stupid thing to do, and I will never be able to read Shedlock again without...well, I'll just stop there. I'll never be able to read Shedlock again.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the University of Potsdam, a brilliant atmospheric scientist and mathematician (German, notice) sums it up by noting that the recent slowdown in the "rate of change" is because of a persistent La Nina pattern which has countered the relentlessly rising CO2 and methane levels. This is not a cause for rejoicing, since signs of a returning El Nino are now at hand. If this occurs about the same time that China is forced to curtail smokestack releases from coal-burning plants (so the Chinese can resume breathing outdoors), we will see a sudden quantum jump upward in average temperature. China and India are probably holding down world temperatures by about 1 degree C with aerosol emissions, in effect, power plant "volcanoes." And when all of that happens, we can count on the mouth-breathing Shedlock to call it all "natural variation."

The warming effect of greenhouse gases is not really an "hypothesis." Without the simple physics of the greenhouse effect, life here would be very much like the no-life on the moon. It's astounding that people like Shedlock don't see something so obvious. If a new high jump record is set, do they begin questioning the law of gravity? One problem that it brings up, and this is the essence of Mr. Obama's attempt to say something rational in a country which is, overhelmingly, so frigging stupid: a guy like Shedlock sees global warming as an annoyance because all he wants to think about, and all he wants to do, is to make money. Since Obama is speaking to a legislative group that is controlled by people with exactly the same attitude, his diffidence (while appalling) is more understandable. It's human nature. If you're at the convocation of cardinals in the Vatican voting on a new Pope, you feel funny abstaining from a vote because you're an atheist. Such is the power of culture-wide ignorance, such as that which prevails in the United States. There are a great many science-denying imbeciles in the Congress, particularly on the Republican side, where idiocy is worn as a badge of honor and as a talisman of membership.

As for Mr. Shedlock's other anecdotal gotcha, about Antarctica, I guess he's nailed us there. We could point out a few things. If the world isn't warming why is the Arctic ice going away? It is going away; even George Will doesn't say much about that anymore, and think how dumb he is. Also, an important distinction: Antarctica is a continent. This means, Mr. Shedlock, that it's made out of land. It is hard for the warming ocean to flow under the ice on Antarctica because the ice is on land. The ice is thousands of feet high. At the other pole, the area you would call Arctica, there is no land. It is all water, liquid or frozen (the frozen part is called "ice.") If you look at a globe, you will see that Arctica is surrounded by lots of land, which has less thermal inertia than water, and I'm sorry to be so technical. Also, the large bodies of water with access to Arctica (these bodies of water are called "oceans") are free to flow into, over and under the ice at the North Pole.

So the two poles are different. Greenland, by the way, is in the North, and it's melting fast. But yes, one must concede your point, Mr. Shedlock. A research ship got caught in the ice pack off Antartica. Doesn't sound much like global warming to me, either, Mish! Or at least it won't until in a few years they hold America's Cup at the North Pole.

In such a country, with legions of Moes, Larrys & Curleys holding forth, it does seem brave to proclaim that climate change is real. Sad, but true.

Most scientists will argue that taking 1998 as the starting point automatically begets a false conclusion, as this year was particularly hot, thanks to strong El Nino conditions transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere.
“Taking 1998 as the starting year is a joke,” says Pieter Tans, a climate scientist who worked on the IPCC report. “Why not 1997 or 1999? Anyone doing this gets an ‘F’ grade in introductory statistics.
“It is too early for us to be able to say that the human-caused warming has stopped. I fully expect the long-term warming to continue because we know that our activities are causing the greenhouse gases to increase, and we can calculate based on very well understood physics, how the GHGs retain heat in the atmosphere.”
He adds: “There is no ‘Greenhouse Warming Hypothesis’. The warming expectation follows directly from established physics and chemistry.”
- See more at: http://www.rtcc.org/2013/09/23/global-cooling-how-will-the-ipcc-explain-15-year-temperature-hiatus/#sthash.oWEUdHsj.dpuf

Rather, I am against carbon trading schemes, taxpayer funding of green energy, and other silliness based on global warming hysteria.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.
In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.
Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.

In contrast to what the global warming advocates have predicted, a UN report shows the Earth has cooled for 15 years.

In spite of hysteria over the melting of ice caps that theoretically would put the entire state of Florida underwater, Antarctic ice has been growing for decades, reaching a 35-year high in 2013.

Humorously, a research ship attempting to prove global warming got trapped in unusually thick ice this January and had to be rescued by icebreakers.