Bush's Iraq Strategy Revealed

..."But slowly but surely, the truth will be known. Either we'll succeed, or we won't succeed. And the definition of success as I described is sectarian violence down. Success is not, no violence. There are parts of our own country that have got a certain level of violence to it. But success is a level of violence where the people feel comfortable about living their daily lives. And that's what we're trying to achieve."

So there you have it at last: Bush's Iraq Strategy. Certain elements of the strategy seem incontrovertible; for example, the dichotomy between succeed/won't succeed. I would concede that one or the other will happen. To succeed, but slowly but surely, involves sectarian violence down, although not to zero. Bush points out that "parts" of our own country have got a certain level of violence to "it" [sic]. Antecedents, along with the rest of the English language, are not Bush's long suit. I would concede this as well. He probably means urban areas, in general, but let's not forget Dick & Perry in Kansas. The reference to the United States is not elaborated, but I think I can help. Bush suggests here that no one would quibble with America as a successful country despite the violence, since Americans feel comfortable, he contends, living their daily lives. The precise level of violence which is consistent with success in Iraq is where Iraqis feel comfortable living their daily lives as well. Thus, summing up the various elements, and placing them in some kind of cogent relationship, success in Iraq will be achieved when Iraqis feel comfortable the way we do.

This is a far cry from the original rationales for the war, which dealt with mushroom clouds and Saddam's support for al-Qaeda. A million men or so have rotated in and out of Iraq (mostly in) and the country has spent $500 billion over more than a four year period so the Iraqis could feel comfortable living their daily lives. Thus, the war has been about the affective well-being of the ordinary Iraqi going about his/her daily life.

This does not seem to me an unfair oversimplification. On the broader front, the idea of "stabilizing" the Middle East, or the democracy-domino theory, or Bush's claim that so long as we fight in Iraq we'll never endure another terrorist attack in the U.S. - to all this, I would counter that these are merely conjectural theories. No matter how strenuously, or loudly, anyone says these things, they remain notions which are not amenable to empirical proof. Maybe yes, maybe no, but there is no way to know for sure at the present time.

What "metric" will we use to determine when Iraqi violence has subsided to the point where Iraqis feel comfortable about living their daily lives? A poll taken based upon a scientific sample? Given Bush's reaction to the Lancet study of Iraqi civilian deaths, he doesn't seem to give much credence to the results of such inquiries. The President's own "gut" feeling about how comfortable the Iraqis are living their daily lives? He could exhort this country, I suppose, with a thundering oration to a joint session of Congress wherein he exclaims, "the Iraqis are almost comfortable enough now! We're making steady progress!" That seems tepid and unconvincing. A soldier dying for Iraqi comfort might question his mission or the meaning of his sacrifice.

I notice that Bush does not require a fully-functioning democracy in Iraq as a condition of success; thus, Iraqi comfort in a theocracy or military junta might also make the grade, although Bush might have assumed that we all knew he meant it must be a democratically-based comfort. Or maybe not. He sometimes refers simply to a "functioning" government able to "defend" itself, and a theocratic system under Sharia law might actually manage this better than a democracy rivened by sectarian conflict. The overall good news is that with a successful mission so vaguely defined, we might get there tomorrow, especially since most polls show about 80% of the Iraqi people want the American occupation to end now or very soon. "It's peaceful enough," they'll say. "We're comfortable, we're comfortable. Now please get the hell out of here."